Gas prices at Engie's regulated tariffs have increased by 2.4% since November 2020. After a start to the year marked by several gas cuts, prices have started to rise again since August 2020. In France, the price of natural gas is revised on average every month by the public authorities, on consultation with the Commission de Régulation de l'Energie (CRE). The price level of natural gas is influenced by several components: production costs, delivery, transportation and marketing of gas.
Drops and increases in gas prices in 2021
No drop in gas prices between May and October 2021
The downward trend in gas prices gas will not have lasted long because from May 2021 the latter will start to increase again. Indeed, the month of May is marked by a slight increase of 1.1%. It was caused by the increase in supply costs suffered by Engie.
The month of June confirms the trend in a more pronounced way this time with an increase of 4.4%.
Still no drop in the price of gas in sight for July 2021, far from it, since the latter recorded an exceptional increase of 9.96%.
August 2021 is not synonymous with a reduction in the price of gas either: +5.3% excluding tax on average compared to July 2021.
The increases continue in September with an increase of 8.7% and in October 2021 with an increase of 12.6%. The price of gas at TRV has never been so high since January 2015.
-1.4% on the price of gas in April 2021
First drop in the price of gas over the year 2021 in April. The regulated price of HT gas fell by 4.1% on average compared to March 2021. This fall for the month of April is explained by a lower demand for natural gas linked to the rise in temperatures as well as by the drop in liquefied natural gas prices in Asia and Europe.
In detail, the gas bill changes as follows:
No drop in the price of gas between January and March 2021
No drop planned for the price of gas on January 1, 2021 but a slight increase of 0.2% on average. Once again, this increase is due to the increase in Engie's supply costs.
Although the smoothing term continues until February 2021, it has no impact on the evolution of prices on January 1st.
Same pattern for the month of February 2021: the increase in Engie's supply costs caused by the cold snap in East Asia and the resulting strong demand. Result: an increase of 3.5%.
The month of March 2021 is not synonymous with a drop in the price of gas either, since it continues to rise, even more strongly this time (+5.7%).
A start to 2020 marked by price cuts
Price increases from August to December
After several months of gas price cuts, between August and December 2020, consumers had to undergo five increases. In August, it was 1.3%, on 1 September it was 0.6% on average, on 1 October 4.7%, 1 November 1.6% and on 1 December 2.4%.
These price increases are due to an increase in Engie's supply costs. Those who will suffer the biggest increase are those who heat with gas with +0.7% on the bill in September, +5.9% in October, +1.7% in November and +2.5% in December.
A slight drop in July announcing an increase
The CRE announced that the price of gas would drop by an average of 0.3% in July 2020. This rate is much lower than in previous months because it is impacted by the smoothing term set up by CRE.
With the health crisis due to COVID-19, the price of gas fell completely in the first half of 2020 and CRE expects it to increase as sharply as winter. To avoid having an impact on consumers, CRE has therefore implemented a smoothing mechanism which allows the future price increase to be spread over several months.
-2.8% on the price of gas on June 1
On June 1, 2020, the regulated gas price decreased by 2.8% excluding tax on average, i.e. -0.13 cents euros per kWh, caused by a drop in Engie's supply costs. This represents a 0.7% reduction for consumers at the Base rate, 1.5% for those at the B0 rate and 2.9% for those who use gas for their heating.
New drop in May 2020
On May 1, 2020, the price of gas fell again due once again to the drop in Engie's supply costs. This time, there is an average decrease of 1.3%: -0.3% for the Basic tariff (cooking), -0.7% for the B0 tariff (hot water) and -1.3% for the B1 (heating).
The month of May is the 5th consecutive month of lower gas prices. Since January 1, 2020, the cumulative reduction in tariffs is -23.2%. Customers with a gas offer at an indexed price therefore made savings in this half of the year. Those who have a fixed price offer, on the other hand, have not been able to take advantage of these price reductions.
4.4% average drop on April 1
Since Engie's supply costs have fallen further, the price of gas will fall again on April 1, 2020. It should be noted that this drop is also due to the current situation in France and around the world: the Coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, the oil market is in full crisis and this affects the price of natural gas linked to it.
In concrete terms, for gas consumers, the price will drop as follows from April 1:
In total, since January 1, 2020, the regulated gas price has fallen by 22.2%.
The price of gas fell by 4.6% in March
As in previous months, the month of March was characterized by a fall in the price of gas by 4.6%. This is also the month when the application of the smoothing term ends. In other words, article 2 of the decree of June 27, 2019 had set a moderate change in the price of gas for the period from July 2019 to March 2020. This smoothing made it possible not to impact consumers too heavily.
Going back to the regulated gas price, the average drop of 4.6% on March 1 breaks down as follows:
New drop in February with 3.3%
One month after a drop of 0.9%, the price of gas fell again on February 1, 2020 with an average reduction of 3.3%. Again, this price drop is explained by a drop in Engie's supply costs. In more detail, the customer bill will change as follows:
- When gas is used for cooking only: -0.9%;
- Gas used for cooking and hot water: -2%;
- Gas used for heating: -3.5%;
- Gas used for a small boiler room: -4%.
The biggest consumers will therefore be the most impacted by this price drop.
-0.9% on the price of gas from January 2020
The year 2020 begins with good news for gas consumers. Indeed, on January 1, 2020, the price of gas fell by 0.9%. This decrease is the result of lower supply costs for the historical gas supplier, Engie.
Note that since December 8, 2019, subscription to the regulated gas tariff is no longer possible. Customers paying this tariff, however, still have two years to change their offer at Engie or at another natural gas supplier. As a reminder, a change of supplier is totally free and possible at any time. For support, the customer can also call Selectra by dialing 09 73 72 73 00.
An average drop of 11.9% in gas prices in 2019
The year 2019 was marked by numerous gas cuts in France. This downward trend in the price of gas is due in particular to the movement of the “Yellow Vests” which protests against the rise in prices, particularly that of fuel.
Further drop in gas prices of 2.4% excluding tax on October 1, 2019
October 2019 saw a further decrease in gas prices of 2.4% excluding tax on average. A decrease resulting from the application of the tariff formula relating to Engie's regulated natural gas tariffs, defined in the decree of June 27, 2019. This new change in the price of gas breaks down as follows:
There is thus a cumulative drop in gas prices in France of 13.3% excluding tax since 2015. In concrete terms, the impact on consumers' energy bills according to their use of natural gas is as follows:
| Consumption class | Evolution of the subscription | Evolution of the annual invoice (HT) |
|---|---|---|
| Cooking | - | < td>-0.6%|
| Cooking and hot water | - | -1.4% | < /tr>
| Heating | - | -2.5% |
Drop in the price of gas by 0.9% excluding tax in September 2019
After a reduction in Engie's regulated natural gas prices in August 2019, there is a further drop in gas prices of 0.9% 1 September 2019, i.e. 0.81% including tax.
Explanations: although Engie's supply costs increased between August 1 and September 1 by 0.03 c€/kWh, this increase is largely offset by the smoothing system put in place by the authorities public a few months earlier. This system aimed at limiting sharp variations in gas prices has thus reduced Engie's regulated sales tariffs by -0.08 c€/kWh on 1 September 2019.
In concrete terms, the impact of this drop on consumer bills will be as follows:
| Consumption class | Evolution of the subscription | Evolution of the annual invoice (HT) |
|---|---|---|
| Cooking | - | < td>-0.2%|
| Cooking and hot water | - | -0.5% | < /tr>
| Heating | - | -1% |
How much lower the gas price august 2019?
The first half of 2019 was marked by several months of falling gas prices, a trend that continues with a further decrease in gas prices on August 1, 2019 Engie's regulated tariffs are thus down by 0.5% compared to the tariff applied since July 1, 2019. This new change is the result of the application of the tariff formula relating to Engie gas tariffs defined by the decree of June 27, 2019.
| Consumption class | Evolution of the subscription | Evolution of the annual invoice (HT) |
|---|---|---|
| Cooking | - | < td>-0.1%|
| Cooking and hot water | - | -0.3% | < /tr>
| Hot water | - | -0.6% |
| Heating | - | -0.7% |
What is the drop in gas prices in July 2019 in France?< /h3>
The Energy Regulatory Commission announced a 6.8% drop in gas on July 1, 2019, in line with the price reductions applied in previous months. This change in the price of gas could be explained by a fall in the price of natural gas on a global scale at the end of 2018. This new fall in gas was confirmed by the Commission de Régulation de l'Energie (CRE ).
A lower gas price drop than expected
The tariff formula has been modified in order to introduce the concept of "smoothing" in order to anticipate probable increases in the price of gas d by February 2020.
| Month | Gas price evolution WITH smoothing | Evolution of gas prices WITHOUT smoothing |
|---|---|---|
| July 2019 | -6.8% | -12.6% |
| August 2019 | 0% | -2.5% |
| September 2019 | 0% | +1.6% |
| October 2019 | -0.7% | +4.9% |
| November 2019 | +2.2% | +4.9% |
| December 2019 | +1.3% | +1.2% |
| January 2020 | +0.4% | +0.4% |
| February 2019 | +0.2% | +0.2% |
Without this smoothing mechanism, the fall in the gas price should have been -12.6%! CRE's objective is to reduce gas price increases during the winter by anticipating them. Incidentally, this new calculation still respects Engie's cost coverage.
These forecast increases for winter 2019/2020 are also calculated for average winter temperatures.
Engie's cost coverage
Cost coverage, a concept that was already included in the gas price calculation, also influenced the amount of the gas price drop.
Here is a detailed description of the impact of changes to the different scales on the regulated gas price:
| Scales | Evolution of the TRV* |
|---|---|
| Supply Costs | -14.4% |
| Non-Supply Costs | +1.8% |
| - Distribution costs | +0.1% |
| - Transport costs | -0.1% |
| - Storage costs | -1.0% |
| - Trade Costs | +1.7% |
| - Historical Margin | +1.1% |
| Smoothing | +5.8% |
| Total | -6.8% |
*: Change between June 1, 2019 and July 1, 2019.
Supply costs
Supply costs correspond to the costs associated with the purchase of natural gas from producers. These costs correspond to the extraction of deposits and transport to the borders of France.
These supply costs have fallen, in particular thanks to the fall in the price of natural gas. The impact of this reduction in supply costs should have allowed a drop in the regulated gas price of -14.4% on July 1, 2019.
Non-supply costs
Among the non-supply costs, we find infrastructure costs (composed of distribution, transport and storage costs) which justifies a -1% reduction in the tariff regulated.
However, this drop is quickly absorbed by the increase in commercial costs (+1.7% on the regulated tariff) and Engie's historic margin revised upwards (+1.1% on the TRV).
What is the drop in gas prices in May 2019?
From May 1 to 31, 2019, the natural gas consumption of the 4.2 million individual consumers with a contract with ENGIE at the regulated tariff will be invoiced on average 0.60% less excluding VAT than during the month of March. It follows two highly anticipated declines in January and February, followed by stagnation in March, even though 2018 was marked by many strong increases. Prices at the beginning of the year are at a level equivalent to their already very high levels of 2014, but not yet those of the end of 2012 and 2013.
This is good news for consumers and the Government, which had announced that it would not increase energy prices until June. As a reminder, the Yellow Vests movement began to gain momentum in November 2018, following a rebellion against the rise in these prices. Despite the President of the Republic's announcements made on Sunday December 10 concerning the CSG for some pensioners and the activity bonus for some of the employees on the minimum wage, it is not certain that this is enough for the demonstrators, who have broader claims.
| Consumption class | Annual subscription | Consumption in kWh | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4< /th> | Zone 5 | Zone 6 | ||
| Cooking | €102.12 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 |
| Domestic water | €102.12 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 | < td>€0.1121€0.1121 | €0.1121 | €0.1121 | |
| Heating | €249.72 | €0.0873 | €0.0880 | €0.0887 | €0.0894 | €0.0902 | 0.0909 € |
Details of the reduction unveiled for January by the CRE are the following :
To get an idea, the April drop of -1.91% was:
The detail of the reduction unveiled for January by the CRE is as follows:
Gas price freeze in 2019
The Yellow Vests movement started following a tax frenzy, affecting fuel in particular. After several weeks of struggle, the Prime Minister announced a freeze on the regulated tariffs of EDF and Engie, from February to June 2019:
The government is indeed able to freeze energy prices if it wishes. For this, it has two levers: taxation and regulated tariffs. Thus, while the TICGN (gas) was to increase on January 1 and an increase in the CSPE (electricity) could have been initiated, this will not happen during the first half of the year. However, this does not mean that these two taxes, each alone already representing more than 10% of the amount of the tax-inclusive invoices of French households. As for the regulated tariff, its evolution is decided by the Energy Regulation Commission, as we explain in more detail later in the article. But the Government can oppose or curb an increase, as it did between October 1 and December 31, 2011 for gas and between November 1, 2014 and July 31, 2015 for electricity. But each time, the decision had been invalidated by the Council of State, and a catch-up had been invoiced to consumers thereafter. To avoid this, the Government is counting on the fall in oil prices and has made several requests to the Engie group to lower its costs:
The request was heard by the group, as confirmed by its general manager on France Inter three days later:
On December 28, 2018, the Government detailed the drop in regulated gas prices for the first half of 2019 for gas-heated fireplaces:
This decision must still be validated by the CRE, before a first decree is published at the beginning of July. As winter has just begun, this is good news for several million French households that heat with town gas. It is also proof that the public authorities can still influence variations in energy prices, by asking a company that it holds in majority to work in this direction. However, this should no longer be possible in a few years, since the State intends to withdraw from Engie, and regulated gas prices will be abolished in 2023.
How did gas prices change during 2018?
Here is a table of changes in regulated natural gas prices observed during the year. Since the monthly adjustment of changes five years ago, carried out with the aim of smoothing the rise in gas, prices have never risen so many times in the same year.
| Month | Change |
|---|---|
| January | +2.3%* |
| February | +1 .3% |
| March | -3% |
| April | -1.1% |
| May | +0.4% |
| June | +2.1% |
| July | +7.45% |
| August | +0.2% |
| September | +0.9% |
| October | +3.25% |
| November | +5.9% |
| December | -2.4% |
How to explain the drop in end gas prices 2018?
More than the scarcity of natural resources, it is the geopolitical and financial tensions between the producing and consuming countries of natural gas that are at the origin of the changes in gas prices. In fact, gas prices depend heavily on the conversion rate between the dollar and the euro, and the price of oil. However, there has been a sharp drop in this price for more than a month.
Lower your gas bill even more this month! Call the Selectra experts free of charge to find a cheaper offer that suits you. The change of gas supplier is done without interruption and does not require any particular action on your part, since the new supplier takes care of everything free of charge. More information by contacting Selectra on 09 73 72 73 00 (Monday-Friday 7am-9pm, Saturday 8.30am-6.30pm and Sunday 9am-5pm).Gas price evolution for 10 years
On the following graph, it is possible to follow the evolution of gas since 2005. Overall, we see a general increase in the price of gas, despite the occasional drops that occurred over the period.
Who decides on changes to gas prices for individuals?
As part of the liberalization of the energy market, the Energy Regulation Commission was created. Its objective is to ensure the opening of the market by ensuring that the players comply with the rules put in place. It is a public authority independent of the Government, incumbent suppliers and alternative suppliers. Since the end of 2015, it has directly set the regulated electricity tariffs for EDF and gas for Engie. The Government can theoretically have the last word, but the Council of State watches and has already in the past canceled Government decisions contrary to the recommendations of the CRE. It is therefore counterproductive for the State to curb increases in energy prices, since they will ultimately be passed on to customers' bills.
How are gas price reductions decided?
There is a tariff formula for gas prices, which CRE follows scrupulously. The main factors considered are:
- the price of a barrel of oil;
- quotation on the TTF wholesale market;
- future contracts on the Trading Region France; < li>the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro.
Every month, CRE analyzes this data to set part of the price of natural gas consumption for the following month. However, this only makes up about a third of the final price of energy. You must then add the costs of transporting the gas (transport by Teréga and GRTgaz then distribution by GRDF) and the various taxes on gas to give the price including tax.
One solution to be less dependent on the fluctuations of the various stock market prices is to develop green gas in France. A study conducted by ADEME, GRDF and GRTgaz suggests that France, if it invests enough in the research and development of green gases, could be gas independent by 2050.
How to take advantage of lower gas prices?
Town gas prices differ from all gas suppliers. The regulated tariff is only marketed by Engie, the historical supplier on the GRDF network. Thus, it is quite possible to save money on your gas bills; you still have to choose your gas offer carefully.
Have fixed prices that can be adjusted downwards
In order to take advantage of falling gas prices, it is necessary to choose your offer carefully. Gas offers at fixed and adjustable prices remain the best option in order to benefit from the fall in the price of gas without suffering a possible increase in gas. This type of offer allows you to benefit from a fixed price that does not increase in the event of a rise in the price of gas. Conversely, any reduction in the price of gas is applied on the anniversary date of the contract, thus making it possible to reduce its energy bills.
| Name of supplier | Name of offer | Features | Estimates |
|---|---|---|---|
| eni Astucio planet | < td> Fixed price for 3 years and subject to downward revision. The carbon equivalent of all consumption is offset.09 74 59 12 86 | ||
| EDF Avantage Gaz | Price excluding VAT fixed for 4 years, subject to downward revision within the limit of 7%, on the anniversary date of the contract | 09 69 32 15 15 |
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